Buyers remain cautious to begin the fall
market
Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver1 declined 3.8 per cent
year over year in September, suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs
are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.
Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales in the
region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the
1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the
10-year seasonal average (2,502).
“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed
strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the
September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew
Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Sales continue
trending roughly 25 per cent below the ten-year seasonal average in the
region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few
years now. With the September data, sales are now tracking slightly below our
forecast however, but we remain optimistic sales will still end 2024 higher
than 2023.”
There were 6,144 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for
sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September
2024. This represents a 12.8 per cent increase compared to the 5,446
properties listed in September 2023. This was also 16.7 per cent above the
10-year seasonal average (5,266).
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system
in Metro Vancouver is 14,932, a 31.2 per cent increase compared to September
2023 (11,382). This is 24.2 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average
(12,027).
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the
sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2024 is 12.8 per cent. By
property type, the ratio is 9.1 per cent for detached homes, 16.9 per cent
for attached, and 14.6 per cent for apartments.
Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices
occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while
home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent
over several months.
“With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have
sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing
much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Lis said.
With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few
months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines
across all segments on a month over month basis. This downward pressure on
prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed
properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp
of a buyers’ market. With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and
all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand
may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential
properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,179,700. This represents a 1.8
per cent decrease over September 2023 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to
August 2024.
Sales of detached homes in September 2024 reached 516, a 9.8 per cent
decrease from the 572 detached sales recorded in September 2023. The
benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200. This represents a 0.5 per
cent increase from September 2023 and a 1.3 per cent decrease compared to
August 2024.
Sales of apartment homes reached 940 in September 2024, a 4.9 per cent
decrease compared to the 988 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of
an apartment home is $762,000. This represents a 0.8 per cent decrease from
September 2023 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.
Attached home sales in September 2024 totalled 378, a 7.4 per cent increase
compared to the 352 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of a
townhouse is $1,099,200. This represents a 0.5 per cent decrease from
September 2023 and a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.
Post written by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
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